The macroeconomic context is certainly not favorable, changing consumer preferences, particularly in China and among younger generations, the erosion of price-to-value ratios, the growth of the second-hand market, and changes in tourist flows. Major groups remain resilient, but are responding with defensive strategies, focusing on core brands, streamlining portfolios, reviewing pricing policies, and more tightly controlling supply.
According to McKinsey, residual inflation, high rates, and geopolitical uncertainty are reducing the propensity for discretionary spending; even regular customers are postponing high-end purchases. Industry reports had warned at the beginning of the year that 2025 could be a year of recovery, albeit a very limited one, unlike what is currently occurring with a contraction in the personal luxury goods industry.
Groups like LVMH They have seen mixed signals: resilient results in some quarters but sharp organic declines in key segments (fashion and leather goods) and weakness in markets like Japan and the US, with stocks reflecting strong investor concerns. According to a Bain analysis, the 2025 outlook remains unchanged but predicts prolonged turbulence, requiring brands to return to their "brand essence" and revise their commercial strategy. Faced with this turbulent period, luxury brands are repositioning products and prices, reducing new releases, and streamlining assortments to preserve exclusivity. At the same time, they are increasing investments in customer experience and complementary services, from personalization to after-sales support.
Another strategic pillar is the choice of markets to focus on
Major luxury groups are strengthening their presence in domestic markets and in areas showing signs of recovery, so as to balance the customer portfolio, reduce dependence on single regions and limit the impact of macroeconomic risks. At the same time, digital transformation and sustainability are no longer accessory elements, but real levers of competitiveness.
Finally, to weather this period of volatility, a more prudent approach to financial management emerges, including rigorous inventory control, and a focus on cash flow and margins to maintain operational solidity and preserve future investment capacity. These moves outline a sector in transformation, seeking to defend its historical value, turning the crisis into an opportunity to strengthen its identity and build a more solid foundation for future growth.
What else awaits us?
According to data from Confindustria ModaIn the first half of 2025, Italian textile and fashion exports totaled nearly €15 billion, a 4,1% decrease compared to the same period of the previous year. As mentioned above regarding the luxury market, performance was mixed. While some segments showed signs of resilience, others experienced a decline. In particular, exports of fashion accessories declined 6,5% in the first two months of 2025, reaching €4,2 billion.
Therefore, the future of the sector remains uncertain because the variables that determine its performance are numerous and, to a large extent, beyond the control of individual players. On the one hand, the constant rotation of creative directors is unstable for brand identities and product pipelines*; on the other, macroeconomic and geopolitical instability is forcing finance to continually revise investment plans. Added to this are structural shifts in demand from new generations of customers, with a greater focus on sustainability and second-hand goods, which are making the market less predictable. Until these uncertainties find a balance, the sector will continue to navigate a landscape of transformation and uncertainty. We are practically at a crossroads between transformation and uncertainty. Yet, precisely in this period of instability, new opportunities could open up and a solution could be found that can restore hope: those who can innovate wisely, strengthen brand identities, and understand the changing needs of consumers will not only be able to overcome the crisis, but also redefine luxury itself for future generations.
*The sales pipeline is a strategic tool that helps improve and make the sales process more effective.
Therefore, it is advisable to avoid attempts at high-risk market strategies.
As the recently discussed Cucinelli case demonstrates, counterproductive economic strategies always risk compromising a brand's credibility and jeopardizing its financial stability, weakening its image and the trust of investors, let alone consumers.
