L'inheritance it hasn't arrived yet, but can already change the way a family manages their moneyThis is what emerges from a study by the Bank of Italy, according to which Italian families who expect to receive wealth in the future tend to consume more and put fewer resources aside than families with similar characteristics but without the same expectation.
The survey, published in the “Questions of Economics and Finance” series of the Bank of Italy, analyses how the expectation of a succession may influence the economic choices of families: from daily expenses to investments, up to decisions about work, training and the use of credit.
The study was conducted by David Loschiavo, Mirko Moscatelli, Eleonora Porreca e Francesca Zanichelli using data from the Survey of Italian Household Income and Wealth.
More consumption, less savings: the effect of the expected inheritance
According to research, families expecting to receive an inheritance have higher levels of consumption higher by approximately 7% compared to comparable families that do not plan for wealth transfers. At the same time, savings are approximately 17% lower.
The explanation is linked to a fairly intuitive mechanism: if a family knows or thinks that in the future it will be able to count on greater economic availability, it can feel less obliged to accumulate resources in the present and allocate a greater share of income to expenses.
The effect affects both everyday and more expensive purchases. Spending on non-durable goods, such as everyday products and services, is about 6% higher, while the likelihood of purchasing durable goods, such as cars, appliances, or other high-value items, also increases.
More investments and more consumer credit
The expectation of an inheritance also seems to affect the financial choices. The families involved in the study in fact present an amount of investments financial approximately 20% higher than other groups, with a greater propensity towards instruments characterised by a higher risk and return profile.
The relationship with credit is also changing: those who expect to receive a fortune resort more frequently to Consumer credit, probably based on greater confidence in their future economic situation.
The effect on young people: more likely to continue their studies
The study also highlights an impact on educational choices. In fact, in families with at least one member between 16 and 30 years of age, the probability that young people will continue the education pathway or choose programs of training.
The expectation of a future inheritance, therefore, not only changes spending habits but can also influence important decisions for the family's future.
A phenomenon that can widen economic differences
The Bank of Italy emphasizes, however, that the results show statistical correlations and do not automatically demonstrate a cause-and-effect relationship. In other words, expecting an inheritance is not the only reason why a family consumes, invests, or uses credit differently.
According to the authors, however, expectations linked to intergenerational transfers can play an important role in economic choices and contribute to amplifying the inequalitiesIn fact, families expecting to receive an inheritance are more often those who already have greater economic resources.
Future wealth, therefore, can begin to influence family decisions long before it is actually received.
