The analysts of the Financial Times They shared their predictions in the newspaper about the most pressing global issues of 2025. Where will these issues be in a year? Answering a specific question, the staff of the Financial Times thus engages in a predictive exercise with a binary answer: yes or no. Theirs is a privileged observatory on a reality of extraordinary complexity.
It is interesting, and even amusing, to observe what these analysts glimpsed in the “crystal ball” of the world of 2025. Over the last millennium, “25” has often been a year of transition. 2024 did not go very well for the newspaper team, out of 20 answers only 5 were correct. Two readers, however, guessed all 20. One of them was an Italian living in London, Ercole Durini.
The 20 Q&As of Financial Times
- Will Donald Trump start a full-scale tariff war?
Yes. Donald Trump could start a trade war, imposing 10% tariffs on at least half of US imports by the end of the year, targeting mainly China, Mexico and Canada. Trading partners could retaliate or negotiate, but Trump will likely keep the tariffs in place, using economic leverage and tax revenue.
Alan Beattie [Senior Trade Writer] - Will there be peace between Ukraine and Russia?
Yes. To get Moscow to engage in real negotiations, the US president will have to toughen sanctions threats and step up support for Kiev. Zelensky will accept Russian control over some occupied territories, with possible territorial swaps, in exchange for European security guarantees and US support. Ukraine’s membership in NATO will be suspended.
Ben Hall [Europe Editor] - Will US interest rates be lower by the end of 2025 than they are now?
No. Markets expect the US federal funds rate to be 3,9% in December 2025, slightly lower than the 4,25-4,5% expected in 2024. However, due to Trump's policies, inflation will remain high, forcing the Fed to maintain a cautious policy. Meanwhile, the ECB and the Bank of England will continue to cut rates.
Martin Wolf [Chief Economics Commentator] - Will Emmanuel Macron Survive as President?
Yes. Emmanuel Macron is in a vulnerable position after his defeat in last summer's general election. The repercussions are serious: parliamentary paralysis, four prime ministers in one year, and a rollback of his economic reforms. Despite pressure from Marine Le Pen and the far left, Macron will not resign.
Leila Abboud [Paris Bureau Chief] - Will The Magnificent Seven be scaled down?
No. Big tech companies like Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla will continue to thrive on private sector dynamism and AI enthusiasm. However, three factors will limit expansion: capital expenditures could weigh on profitability, AI enthusiasm is overblown, and valuations are high.
Gillian Tett [Columnist and member of the Editorial Board] - Will Chinese export prices fall further?
Yes. China’s deflationary pressure on the global market is set to intensify. The competitiveness of Chinese companies, especially in the technology sector, could push export prices in renminbi down by 10% in 2025. This will put pressure on competitors and compensate Beijing for any US tariffs.
James Kynge [Former Europe-China Correspondent] - Will Elon Musk and Donald Trump fight?
No. Despite Trump’s impatience with other egos, Musk has too much to gain by staying on Trump’s side. Musk’s net worth has increased 66% since Trump’s victory, driven by expectations that deregulation would benefit Tesla, SpaceX, and Neuralink. He will remain with Trump at least until July 4, 2026 (the midterm elections).
Edward Luce [US National Editor and Columnist] - Will Germany abandon its debt ceiling?
Yes. Calls to loosen the Schuldenbremse, the constitutional clause that limits German public debt to 0,35% of GDP, are growing as Germany faces huge spending needs, especially in defense, and unprecedented economic stagnation. The Schuldenbremse became a central issue in February’s elections.
Anne-Sylvaine Chassany [Companies Editor] - Will the bond market crash?
No. The system may falter, but it will not collapse. Investors are watching every sign for fear that Trump’s cavalier stance on debt and his proposed tax cuts could trigger a “Liz Truss moment” in the stock market. However, an uncontrolled crisis of confidence would be enormously devastating for markets, including stocks.
Katie Martin [Markets Columnist] - Will China's carbon emissions fall?
No. Emissions from the world’s biggest greenhouse gas emitter could peak despite a commitment to reduce them by 2030. China’s carbon output in 2024 is expected to remain flat or rise slightly, but Xi Jinping’s stimulus measures in 2025 risk hindering the development of renewable energy.
Emiliya Mychasuk [Climate Editor] - Will the UK Labour government keep its promise not to raise taxes further?
Yes. For now. However, opposition MPs and journalists believe the government’s commitment not to raise taxes is not solid. Chancellor Rachel Reeves and Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer use ambiguous language, suggesting that the promise not to introduce further tax increases is difficult to keep.
Miranda Green [Deputy Opinion Editor] - Will Israel and the US strike Iran's nuclear facilities?
No. Israel may be tempted to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has long promised to prevent Tehran from developing a nuclear weapon, but he will need support from the U.S., which may hesitate to avoid a regional war. If Iran gets closer to a nuclear bomb, that could change.
Andrew England [Middle East Editor] - Will Bitcoin's Value Rise to $200?
Yes. Bitcoin surpassed $100.000 in December 2024, and a further doubling seems difficult, but not impossible. Trump’s support for cryptocurrencies has already fueled its rise. With pro-crypto guidance, the SEC could create a set of rules that will favor the entry of institutional investors, pushing up the price of Bitcoin.
Nikou Asgari [Digital Markets Correspondent] - Will India's GDP surpass Japan's?
No. This will happen soon (and is already true in terms of purchasing power parity), but it is more likely in 2026 than in 2025. According to the IMF, Japan will end next year with an economic growth rate of 4,7%, while India's growth will slow in the final quarters. It will take more than 12 months for the predicted overtaking.
Robin Harding [Asia Editor] - Will electric cars reach 25% of car sales?
No. If the trend of recent years continues, the percentage could barely exceed 22%. 2025 will be a difficult year for the automotive industry, with enthusiasm for electric vehicles outside China cooling. However, to meet European regulations and UK targets, manufacturers will launch new models and significant discounts.
Kana Inagaki [Industry Editor] - Will Javier Milei Remove Peso Exchange Controls in Argentina?
Yes. Fearing a spike in inflation and concerned about the country's low reserves, the libertarian president has so far resisted the idea of removing limits on foreign currency purchases. However, in 2025, Milei will take this decisive step, driven by the need to stimulate foreign investment, essential to launch a solid recovery.
Michael Stott [Latin America Editor] - Will the war in Sudan end?
Unfortunately, no. The conflict in Sudan is now a proxy war, with multiple powers involved. The main internal antagonists, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and the head of the Rapid Support Forces, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemeti), still harbor illusions of total victory. Too many actors, internal and external, benefit from the conflict.
David Pilling [Africa Editor] - Will there be usable AI agents?
Yes. Artificial intelligence agents will be the dominant theme of 2025. An AI agent is a piece of software that can perform tasks on a smartphone or browser, such as filling out forms, shopping online, or managing email. Google, OpenAI, Microsoft, and others will launch new solutions, with the possibility that one of them will become the go-to tool.
Madhumita Murgia [Artificial Intelligence Editor] - Will there be another big Hollywood sell-off?
Yes. In 2024, Paramount became the first major studio to bow to the logic of streaming. Control passed from the Redstone family to Skydance Media, led by David Ellison. Warner Bros. Discovery could follow suit: Faced with the decline of the television business, David Zaslav has already spun off its cable channels for a possible sale.
Christopher Grimes [Los Angeles Bureau Chief] - Will CDs experience a revival similar to vinyl?
No. The CD format has made a comeback due to its popularity in the South Korean K-pop industry. However, it is unrealistic to expect sustained growth by 2025. In the K-pop world, CDs are purchased primarily for their distinctive packaging. Western artists such as Taylor Swift have also adopted similar marketing strategies.
Ludovic Hunter-Tilney [Arts Writer and Pop Critic].
