In Scottish Gaelic “Scotland” is called “Dawn”. And there are not a few who hope that the very green golf courses in Scotland may represent the dawn of an agreement between Washington and Brussels in the intricate organization of the duties: i United States and the European Union are by far the major partners commercial for each other and represent a third of world trade.
Trump, Having arrived in Scotland to play at his two golf courses, one at Turnberry on the west coast, where he will play on Saturday, and the other near Aberdeen, he will take the opportunity to meet the British Prime Minister. Keir Starmer and the president of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen to try to reach an agreement on tariffs before the deadline next Friday, The date when the 30% tariff on EU exports to the United States will take effect. Upon his arrival on Friday evening, Trump told reporters that von der Leyen is a highly respected leader and that he looked forward to meeting her at his golf course in Turnberry.
“Intensive negotiations are underway at the technical and political level,” he said. Paula Pinho, von der Leyen's spokesperson: "Leaders will take stock of the situation and assess the possibility of a balanced outcome that ensures stability and predictability for businesses and consumers on both sides of the Atlantic." EU officials have repeatedly warned that a deal is ultimately up to Trump, making the final outcome difficult to predict. "It will be the biggest deal of all," the tycoon said upon his arrival.
What to expect from the agreement
The President of the United States also said upon his arrival that the chance that the United States reach a trade agreement with the European Union they are 50% or maybe less, adding that Brussels "is very keen to reach an agreement." "We are working very hard with Europe, the European Union," Trump told reporters.
Thursday the European Commission he said that a solution trade deal negotiated with the United States was within reach, despite EU members voting for approve counter-tariffs for 93 billion euros of US products in case the talks fail.
EU diplomats said Washington and Brussels appeared to be moving towards a possible agreement that would result in a generous 15% rate on EU products imported into the United States, mirroring a framework agreement Washington struck with Japan. But the White House said discussions on a deal should be considered "speculation." Trump's trade adviser, Peter Navaro, said to Bloomberg News that the EU report should be taken with a pinch of salt.
Moreover, that number of 15 %, around which the agreement revolves, is a percentage what can be declined in different ways. For the sector of'automotive, for example, represents good news compared to the 27,5% inaugurated by the USA with the "Liberation Day" of April 2nd. For some products food Furthermore, number 15 would not lead to excessive upheavals, as it is already in effect. Meanwhile, some in Europe see that 15% as a negative result compared to the initial European ambition of a zero-to-zero tariff agreement on all industrial products.
Never question marks remain several. The drugs will they enjoy exemptions? The agreement also includes the promise of significant investments Europeans in the US, in the wake of the agreement between Washington and Tokyo? And, above all, will the Turnberry summit mark a turning point in the hitherto chilly relations between the EU and Donald Trump's America?
Some rumors They see two points at the basis of the agreement that The Donald might like. On the one hand, the fact that Europe has no intention of replacing the US with Beijing. On the other hand, faced with pressure from Washington to protection of Big Tech, the hypothesis of one European digital tax seems to have been set aside. However, the red line on the Digital Services Act-Digital Markets Act (DSA-DMA) law remains intact, the two regulatory pillars that impose stricter rules on content, transparency and competition for the web giants, rules that the Trump administration doesn't seem to like.
At stake are 9,5 trillion dollars of business between the US and the EU
Combining goods, services and investments, the EU and the United States are by far each other's largest trading partnersThe American Chamber of Commerce in Brussels warned in March that any conflict would $9,5 trillion in business jeopardized in the most important trade relationship in the world.
The UE faces US tariffs on more than 70% of its exports: 50% off steel and aluminum, 25% on cars and auto parts and a 10% tax on most other goods, which Trump has said he wants to raise to 30% on August 1, a level that EU officials say would wipe out entire swathes of transatlantic trade. Further tariffs are also looming on Copper and on pharmaceutical products.
The agreement with Japan leads the way
This week the US has drawn up with Japan a document that has been seen as the track for other possible agreements. The agreement with Tokyo sets tariffs on the country's imports at 15% (while tariffs of 25% were to take effect in a few days), including automobiles, which represent by far the largest component of the trade deficit between the two countries. In exchange, Tokyo has committed to investing $550 billion in the United States. On the same day, the United States also signed an agreement with the Philippines with a rate set at 19%, the same level agreed upon from Indonesia and one percentage point below the baseline level of 20% of Vietnam , which indicates that most of Southeast Asia is likely to receive a similar rate starting from South Korea and Thailand. Separately, the US is also pursuing the dossier with the ChinaUS Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that he will meet with his Chinese counterparts in Stockholm next week for the third round of talks. The US has embarked on a path of thematic agreements with China, which has seen the United States recently ease restrictions on chips and China resume exports of rare earths.
