Intesa Sanpaolo beats analysts' expectations again with half-year profits of 5,6 billion euros and announced its intention to distribute an interim dividend of 3,8 billion euros in November. In the first half of 2026, "we will record the best six months in our history, thanks also to the best quarter ever“, highlighted the CEO Charles Messina, who spoke in depth about the conference call with analysts30,6 billion takeover bid launched on MPS last June. The number one of Ca' de Sass has closed the door to a possible relaunch and commented on the news of the new clashes within the governance of the Siena bank, speaking of an "incredible situation". The possible sale of the stake in Generalas part of the countermove with Banco Bpm? "Difficult", also because for the moment Unicredit, one of the main candidates for the acquisition, according to Messina is not ready to move.
Intesa: Profits rise 6,5% in the first half of the year
In detail, the first half of the current year ended with a net profit of 5,55 billion euros, up 6,5% compared to last year. In the second quarter alone, however, net profit stood at 2,79 billion, significantly beating analysts' consensus expectations of earnings of 2,52 billion.
On the revenue front, Ca' de Sass recorded in the six months net interest equal to 7,480 billion, up 0,6% while the net commissions grew to 5,131 billion (+4,9%) and net write-downs on loans dropped to 428 million.
Also declining operating costs, fell by 0,7% to 5,222 billion, with an annualized cost of risk of 20 basis points.
On the front patrimonial the Cet1 is at 13,1%, while with regards to credit quality, at the end of June 2026 the incidence of impaired loans on total loans is equal to 0,9% net of value adjustments (and 1,8% gross). “Exposure to Russia” is “almost zero”, the bank underlines. On impaired loans, specific coverage stands at 50,1%.
Returning to the income statement of the first half year, the result of the insurance business Intesa's net income stood at 973 million (922 million in the same period of 2025). Net income from financial assets and liabilities designated at fair value rose to 905 million from 552 million. In summary, net operating income they amount to 14,533 billion, up 5,3%.
On the rise (+2,8%) customer financing that as of June 30th last were equal to 437 billion. At this juncture direct bank collection amounts to 612 billion, an increase of 2% (always in comparison with the end of 2025). direct insurance income It is equal to 187 billion, up 2,5% and the amount of managed savings is equal to 590 billion (+4,9 percent).
Intesa: €5,3 billion accrued for shareholders, €3,8 billion advance coupon payment in November
For Intesa Sanpaolo, the "solid" performance of the first half of the year translated into "significant value creation for all stakeholders," the bank emphasized, highlighting the cash return for shareholders. This involves 5,3 billion euros of distribution matured in the semester, of which 4,2 billion in dividends (of which approximately 3,8 billion expected as interim dividends to be distributed next November), which are added to the buyback of €2,3 billion launched in July 2026.
For the entire financial year Intesa estimates a payout ratio for 2026 of 95%., of which 75% from cash dividends and 20% from buybacks. But there are two conditions: the CET1 ratio must remain above 12,5% and no external growth opportunities capable of offering higher returns must emerge, particularly in wealth management.
Intesa Sanpaolo: net profit to exceed €10 billion in 2026
In light of the results recorded in the first half of the year, the bank led by Carlo Messina has improved its forecasts for the current year, bringing the target of net profit of over 10 billion euros. The bank expects revenue growth, driven primarily by commissions and insurance business results, with net interest income rising to well over €15 billion and costs remaining stable.
Messina: "With MPS, profits will exceed €16 billion in 2029."
Opening the conference call with analysts, Messina said that the offer launched in June on MPS: "it is well underway with zero integration risks and will strengthen our leadership in Italy while consolidating our position among the leading European banking groups. We have seized a unique strategic opportunity that will allow us to immediately exceed our plan targets, expand our customer base, and strengthen our already very solid capital structure.”
"The goal," the manager explained in the financial statement, "is to create together an even more solid and profitable group, a key player in an increasingly complex global landscape, capable of maintaining strong roots in the economy, society, and our country's development capabilities."
According to forecasts, the union of forces of Intesa Sanpaolo, of the Rocca Salimbeni component destined to become part of the new group and of Mediobanca, continues the CEO, "will allow us to reach the €2.000 trillion in customer financial assets by 2029, to expand its leadership in activities serving families, businesses and wealth management, to create a reference operator in consumer credit, wealth management, corporate and investment banking, and to grow internationally”. In conclusion, the new group's net profit by 2029 is expected to be “exceeding 16 billion euros, the total distribution to shareholders is estimated at 61 billion between 2025 and 2029”. The dividend per share is expected to increase starting in 2026.
Messina: "No to a relaunch, we're a safe haven for MPS shareholders." The clashes on the board of directors? "Incredible."
Speaking to analysts, the CEO of Ca'de Sass said A possible relaunch is ruled out. There is "zero chance" that Intesa could increase the price of the takeover bid, he assured, explaining that, also in light of the respective share prices, "there is no room for further variations".
In any case, Intesa's offer remains "the best option for MPS, Mediobanca and Intesa Sanpaolo”, but above all “a solid base for MPS members and will allow them to find a safe haven”, said Messina answering a question about the rumours of the Sun 24 Hours According to reports, there are new frictions within the MPS board of directors, with four out of five minority directors having written a letter to the president, Cesare Bisoni, contesting the evolution of governance and, above all, the management of CEO Luigi Lovaglio. "I must make one thing clear: we can create a normal situation in terms of governance. It's incredible that the company (Mps, ed) always find yourself in this situation "After what's happened in recent months. First the CEO was fired, then he was reinstated, and the board of directors has expressed different positions. There's something that needs to be evaluated by the counterparties with solid reputations that will provide MPS shareholders with a solid foundation and a safe haven," Messina commented.
Messina: "It's difficult for MPS to sell Generali; Unicredit isn't ready today."
Intesa's head also addressed rumors regarding the possible sale by MPS-Mediobanca of 13,3% of Generali in order to raise the liquidity needed to distribute a special dividend as part of the attempted merger of equals under consideration with Banco BPM. "The distribution of a extraordinary dividend, according to current legislation, requires the approval of the extraordinary assembly and the ECB. But above all it would not be easy to sell the stake in GeneraliWe're talking about a very significant stake. Who could buy it? We're launching the offering. Unicredit? There's full respect and friendship; it's the other major player in the market, but I don't think they're ready to take it over. Alternatively, there could be players like Axa or Allianz,” the manager stated.
In any case, if Siena decided to put this stake on the market, there could be a 20-30% reduction in the stock price. So, perhaps, it is better to stop making hypothetical analyses, "what if" analyses that then perhaps have no possibility of coming true", continued Messina. Certainly, the hypothesis that MPS could distribute its excess capital, or give an extra dividend perhaps by selling its share of Generali, "would change the exchange rate and our offer should be reconsidered“, He concluded.
