Beijing's reaction to the G7 conclusions was not long in coming. This morning, at dawn, the Chinese embassy in London issued a harsh statement against "foreign interference with our sovereignty". But Xi Jinping's irritation will not have a sequel on the price lists, because today the Chinese squares are closed for holidays. While waiting for the developments of a very intense international calendar, the stock markets restart from the highs reached at the end of the week, while the bond markets point downwards. A trend destined to last until Wednesday evening, when the Federal Reserve board meeting closes. In the meantime, the constant growth of raw materials, starting with oil, holds the stage.
WTI AT THE HIGHEST SINCE 2018, +40% SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR
Brent ($73,10) and WTI (71,20) open the week on new highs since 2018, supported by an improvement in the prospects for global demand, thanks to the increase in vaccinations against Covid, which favors the return to the movement of people.
Oil completed its third consecutive positive week on Friday, extending its year-to-date gain to more than 40%. Goldman Sachs wrote last week that it expects Brent crude to rise to $80 a barrel this summer as demand accelerates.
THE NIKKEI RISES
On the stock markets, the step forward of the Nikkei (+0,35%) at the beginning of the week that will see the Toyota assembly should be noted. Meanwhile, yet another Toshiba scandal explodes: four executives, including two members of the board of directors, resigned after the publication of an investigation which revealed the collaboration between the company and the Japanese government to put pressure on foreign funds interested in the society.
SLOW BONDS, INFLATION SNUBBED
Weak bond markets. The 1,465-year T-bond travels at 1,25%, but "I bet it will go down to XNUMX%", claims a Japanese manager on Reuters.
CONSOB, TODAY THE SAVONA REPORT
The traditional meeting between Consob and the financial market is held today at 11. The appointment with Paolo Savona can be followed in streaming. In the past, the economist took the opportunity to present his theses on the European Union, the future of the currency and other issues of a general nature. Who knows if this time he will pronounce himself on the single capital market, on the prospects of Piazza Affari merged into Euronext or on the exodus, via delisting, of securities from the Italian market.
NATO SUMMIT, CHINA DEFENDS THE TURKISH LIRA
On the international front, having filed the G7 in Cornwall with the consent (albeit prudent) to the policy of closure towards Beijing, the geopolitical news offers two other equally important appointments: the meeting on Wednesday in Geneva between Vladimir Putin and Joseph Biden, which was born on very bad, and today's NATO summit in Brussels (Mario Draghi was present), in which Turkey's ambiguous attitude on the Mediterranean chessboard will take center stage. Erdogan presents himself at the summit flaunting a 6 billion dollar credit line granted by China, a move which, in the short term, could avert the collapse of the lira.
Returning to last weekend's meeting, the partners endorsed the hard line towards China and gave the political green light to an alternative infrastructure project to China's Belt Road.
DRAGHI: "WE WILL REVIEW THE ITALY-CHINA MEMORANDUM"
Prime Minister Mario Draghi said that "the position defined at the summit perfectly reflects ours". And he added that Italy "will carefully examine the memorandum on the Silk Road" signed by the first Conte government in 2019.
After 12 years in power, Beniamyn Netanyahu leaves the leadership of the government of Israel. He is succeeded by Naftali Bennett, leader of a right-wing movement supported by a heterogeneous majority, ranging from the extreme right to an Arab party.
FED, WE ONLY CHANGE AFTER THE SUMMER
The attention of the financial markets is already focused on the next meeting of the Federal Reserve's monetary summit, scheduled for tomorrow and after. Most analysts believe that it is too early, despite the increase in inflation, to put a hand on the Fed's strategies, starting with purchases for 120 billion a month which are strengthening liquidity. But many think that the Fed will issue an initial signal of caution, awaiting the summer turnaround in the pipeline at Jackson Hole. On the other hand, the tensions on prices and the "necks to the bottle" in the economy are making themselves felt: "Why hasn't the sofa you ordered months ago arrived yet?", was the opening title of the Wall Street Journal during the weekend.
Less awaited but undoubtedly eventful will also be the RobinHood conference, which, on the eve of the listing of the zero commission platform dear to day traders, will bring together some of the best names on Wall Street.
Today the European Union will publish the data on industrial production for April, while tomorrow the USA will publish those relating to the month of May. Wednesday will be China's turn. Also on Wednesday, Istat will publish a report on poverty in Italy in 2020. On Thursday, the EU will release inflation data in May and on Wednesday it will be the turn of Great Britain.
THIS WEEK MAYBE THE FIRST EUROBOND FOR RECOVERY
It could be the right week for a historic event: the ECB could issue the first Eurobond in the coming days as part of the 800 billion anti-pandemic plan.
It will not be a real "Hamilton moment" (from the name of the US Treasury minister who launched the first loan to be paid by the US and not by individual states), because the operation was born as a one-off. But the EU is nonetheless preparing to become one of the major players in the debt market.
Tomorrow the college of European Union commissioners will meet to approve the first Recovery plans, those of Portugal, Spain, Greece, Denmark and Luxembourg.
CAPITAL INCREASE FOR AUTOGRILL
Autogrill's capital increase kicks off today in Piazza Affari. The discussion of the rights to the Pininfarina increase will end on Wednesday (which will close on Friday).
