Everything has been announced this political weekend: the primaries of the Democratic Party, Silvio Berlusconi who tries to relaunch his new party (Forza Italia) by baptizing the clubs Forza Silvio, and then Angelino Alfano who, in the shadow of a new symbol ( by many, including Cicchitto, considered ugly) tries to get his "New centre-right" to take its first steps. In the first days of next week it will then be Enrico Letta's turn to go to Parliament to ask for the confidence in his government which, after the broad agreements, is now trying to go ahead with what Alfano himself called the clear understandings.
Particularly rich menu, made even more indigestible by what happened on its eve: the ruling of the Constitutional Court which declared the two architraves of the so-called Porcellum unconstitutional: the majority bonus without a defined numerical threshold and the election of appointed deputies rather than chosen with colleges or preferences. The corollary of the Court's decision was then the emergence of an axis between the 5-star movement and Forza Italia united more than ever in launching accusations, beyond the limit of defamation, to delegitimize also and above all the President of the Republic.
So let's try (very difficult task) to put things in order. The Constitutional Court has taken a decision that is impeccable from a legal point of view. That nomination, instead of popular election, was a constitutional absurdity was clear. The same goes for the fair majority premium without limits to be attributed to the winning coalition. Of course, perhaps with a further gesture of political courage, the Court could have annulled the Porcellum in toto by aiming for a revival of the Mattarellum, but instead it preferred the first path. More prudent and more on the point of law.
Reason why most observers now believe that a proportional system has been resurrected, with the only limit of the barrier to 4 percent of the coalition to 2 percent for the individual coalition parties, with recovery of the first party that does not even reach that threshold. On the other hand, how to regulate the preference vote has to be defined. For some, the sole preference would come back. In fact, pure proportional representation appears unusable at the moment, even for the declared, but almost never confirmed in their behaviour, declarations of bipolarity by the parties.
So far the Consulta. Now, faced with this pronouncement, it was to be hoped that the parties would immediately declare themselves ready to get to work to give the country a credible electoral law in a few weeks. This hasn't happened yet. On the contrary. Forza Italia and the 5-star movement immediately started ranting that at this point the elected Parliament was illegitimate (completely ignoring the last paragraph of the Court's statement which clarified how it was up to the Chambers, in compliance with constitutional principles, to put their hand to the new electoral law).
Of course exponents of Forza Italia immediately hit the trail, according to which, since the Parliament that had elected him was illegitimate, the election of the head of state was equally dubious. Meanwhile, in order not to waste time, the fiery Brunetta has asked for the redistribution of the deputies elected in the Democratic Party by virtue of the majority bonus, invalidated by the decision of the Court. Then there are those like Santanchè who have insisted on the fact that even Berlusconi's dismissal from the Senate is illegitimate. The consequence of this assumption would be that now Berlusconi should return to the Senate, which in turn would still remain illegitimate.
The reactions of the others were a little less agitated. The center parties, especially that of Alfano, are trying to exploit the resurgence of proportionalism, putting in difficulty those in the Democratic Party (especially Renzi) who aim for a quick two-round majority choice and perhaps on a close electoral goal. What is certain is that the post-primary elections of the Democratic Party will increasingly focus on questions relating to the electoral law and their effects on the stability of the Letta government.
In this picture of great confusion, Giorgio Napolitano tries to keep the bar straight once again (yesterday he also had a significant conversation with the Prime Minister at the Quirinale) ignoring the aggressions by the Five Star-Brunetta or perhaps Berlusconi-Travaglio axis and making two things clear. The first is that, as the Court said, the current Parliament is "legitimate to act" on the electoral law (far from being illegitimate!). The second is that, as evidenced by the declarations of all the political forces, the proportional system must be overcome. A way to invite the Chambers to act. At this point the word returns to the political forces. And what we hear (across all political forces) is certainly not a good omen. "Now that the Court has decided we can also take it calmly".
It is not so. The country still does not have a usable electoral law. This data seriously undermines one of the most important prerogatives of the head of state: the power to dissolve the chambers. And to think that the uncertainty about the electoral system favors the duration of Letta's government is puerile. Sure maybe it would help to get by without governing, but that's exactly what Letta has always said she doesn't want. Everything suggests that the Prime Minister will reiterate this concept in his speech on trust.
Finally, the primaries of the Pd. Renzi is given a clear favourite. But if in recent weeks his supporters (in the Democratic Party and outside) came to predict an 80 percent success, now the forecasts have been revised downwards, as a result of the convincing campaign carried out by Cuperlo and Civati. Then there is the uncertainty as to how many will go to the gazebos. previous times the average was around 3 million. Now we would be satisfied with two or maybe one and a half. He also plays on the general disaffection for politics. In the last few hours, however, it seems that potential voters are on the rise. And a good sign in this decision is the decision announced yesterday by Romano Prodi to go to the vote.
