The debate is heating up between Intesa Sanpaolo and MPS on the competing offers that are driving the banking game. In an interview with Repubblica, the CEO of the Siena-based bank, Louis Lovaglio defends the double operation on Banco Bpm and Banca Generali arguing that the entire maneuver is feasible, that it will create value and that it does not involve any dividing up of Banco Bpm. It is not clear, however, how MPS plans to convince the Credit Agricole, which is the largest shareholder of Banco BPM and would prefer a merger with the Milanese bank in Piazza Meda, to accept Monte dei Paschi's offer.
On the other hand, a technical analysis by Professor is striking. Franco Paparella of the Sapienza University of Rome which on Sun writes: “MPS, Lovaglio offers his members what is already theirs as a reward“. San Paolo.
In Paparella's article, Intesa Sanpaolo's takeover bid for MPS is presented as a transaction that creates additional value for shareholders. through a premium recognized by the bidder, as opposed to MPS's extraordinary distribution, which is seen as a simple reallocation of existing value. Specifically:
- The author contrasts MPS's initiative with Intesa Sanpaolo's takeover bid., arguing that Intesa's operation generates new value for shareholders thanks to the intervention of a third party and provides for a 12,5% premium over pre-announcement prices.
- MPS's defensive maneuver is deemed less favorable for small shareholders because the proposed extraordinary distribution (€1,208 per share in cash and Generali shares) would not represent new wealth, but a redistribution of assets already belonging to the bank's shareholders.
- According to the analysis, Intesa's OPAS involves the attribution of an additional benefit, while the MPS operation does not offer a real premium, since the distributed resources come from the bank's own assets and not from an external buyer.
- The article also highlights a tax issue: MPS's extraordinary distribution would be taxed as new wealth, despite representing existing assets. For an individual shareholder residing in Italy, the estimated tax burden would be 26% of the amounts received.
- The author's conclusion is clearly favorable to the comparison with the Intesa operationThe two initiatives are defined as "profoundly different and incomparable," because Intesa's takeover bid envisages the payment of a bonus to shareholders, while MPS's move would be based on the return of a portion of the bank's pre-existing assets, resulting in a tax penalty for shareholders.
