MStanley organ forecasts a solid second quarter for major companies Italian banks, with overall results above consensus thanks above all to a higher net interest margin and good cost control.
US superbank Morgan Stanley, which will publish its second quarter figures today, estimates aggregate earnings of around 7,4 billion in the quarter and expects better-than-expected performances for Banco Bpm, Intesa Sanpaolo, Unicredit and Bper, while for Monte dei Paschi the forecasts exceed the consensus of 5% for core earnings and the CET1 ratio, as reported by Milan Finance.
For Unicredit The focus remains on the Commerzbank operation: according to Morgan Stanley, the institution could gain control of the German bank by increasing its stake by less than 4%, with an impact on the 2026 CET1 estimated at between 280 and 320 basis points.
Su Bper The broker expects a net profit of 741 million, well above consensus, supported by the growth in interest margin. Bpm bank It expects a profit of 563 million and a possible increase in 2026 guidance on interest margin and commissions.
For Monte dei Paschi Morgan Stanley estimates a CET1 ratio of 16,1%, slightly above consensus, and net income substantially in line with expectations. Intesa Sanpaolo, Finally, it forecasts a profit of 2,61 billion, above market estimates, with a CET1 in line with consensus.
