Le European stock exchanges they are moving cautiously, caught between the relief of weaker-than-expected US inflation and the rekindling of tensions in the Middle EastWhile the US price data had already dampened expectations of a Fed rate hike in July, investors quickly turned their attention back to the Strait of Hormuz. After the step back of Donald Trump on the hypothesis of a 20% tax on goods in transit, the American president reinstated the blockade of Iranian ports and, in an interview with Fox News, warned that without an agreement with Tehran, the United States could strike strategic infrastructure as early as next week. Iran responded by reiterating that Hormuz would remain closed until the end of U.S. military operations, keeping tensions high on one of the world's key energy routes.
On the corporate front, the season of quarterly. After the better-than-expected accounts of Asml, which relaunch the semiconductor sector, the market looks to the results of BlackRock e Morgan Stanley and, above all, to those of Tsmc, expected on Wednesday. These numbers will be crucial for assessing the resilience of chip demand and the rally in artificial intelligence stocks.
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Attention also remains focused on the Federal Reserve. In the afternoon Kevin Warsh will present the report on monetary policy before the US Senate Banking Committee, while in the evening the publication of the Beige Book will offer new indications on the state of the American economy and the path of interest rates.
In this context, European stock markets are moving in a random order: Milan, Paris, Frankfurt e Madrid they retreat, while Amsterdam It's the only market to rise, driven by chip sales. In Asia, buying is prevalent, following Wall Street's lead, although China's GDP growth, the weakest since late 2022, is dampening enthusiasm.
A Business Square luxury returns to the forefront, with BRUNELLO CUCINELLI e Moncler supported by Richemont's excellent accounts. Also doing well stm, in the wake of the Asml results, and nexi, among the best performers on the list. On the other hand, sales in defense stocks prevail, with Leonardo e Avio Among the worst. Banks are proceeding cautiously, awaiting both the quarterly results of the American financial giants and the next developments in the banking game. They also remain under observation. Poste Italiane, after the Bank of Italy's approval of the Timfin operation, and Inwit, after the Milan Court rejected the precautionary appeal filed against Fastweb. Out of the FTSE MIB, Bff is under pressure after the confirmation of the unfavorable judgment and the Bank of Italy's comments on the accounts.
On the raw materials front, the Petroleum remains slightly up, with Brent above 85 dollars and WTI close to 79, while gas European returns above 54 euros per megawatt hour. Precious metals are weak ( e silver) after the rally the day before. The exchange rate euro-dollar rremains stable in the 1,14 area. The spread BTP-Bund, at 78 basis points, with the yield on the Italian 10-year bond at 3,92%.
