A new front of geopolitical tensions had been simmering for months, at least since last summer, and in the first weekend of 2026 it finally exploded in all respects, with the bombing of the US army on Caracas, the capital of Venezuela, in the night between Friday 2nd and Saturday 3rd January, and above all the capture of President Nicolas Maduro, who was transferred to Brooklyn prison and is now charged with drug trafficking and terrorism. The financial markets, which had already started the new year on the right foot, were just waiting for this to heat up and in fact in the first useful session after the Venezuelan blitz The tangible consequences have arrived on stock markets and raw materials. Starting, it goes without saying, with Her Majesty Oil, explicitly cited by President Donald Trump in the aftermath of the operation as the real, de facto reason for the regime's overthrow: "Now we're in charge in Caracas, and our companies will have full access to the oil," the tycoon stated clearly.
The situation in Venezuela is boosting the price of oil
Venezuela is in fact the country with the largest crude oil reserves in the world ahead of Saudi Arabia, but the infrastructure is damaged and it will take billions of investments and a long time before making profits. The price of oil, waiting for world production to increase (OPEC+ countries decided to keep it stable on Sunday), meanwhile, the market has risen today: WTI crude is up almost 2%, approaching $59 a barrel, and Brent is not far behind, touching $62 a barrel. It is no coincidence that Major stocks are rallying Americans on Wall Street: ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips in the early afternoon in the United States they gained respectively +4,5% and almost +8%, supported by investors' expectations on a possible recovery of oil compensation in Venezuela.
Chevron, which is currently the only company operating in Venezuelan oil fields, rose by more than 6%. On the contrary, the Brazilian giant Petrobras lost 3%.: Business-wise, the Venezuelan situation is negatively impacting South American companies because it "increases the perception of risk in Latin America," according to analysts at Guardian Capital. On the Milan Stock Exchange, Eni is up 1,5% and Saipem is up 3,2%. But on this side of the Atlantic, industrial and defense stocks are even more buoyant, reinvigorated by a new potential war scenario following the tentative progress toward peace in Ukraine. Indeed, Leonardo is the best-performing stock with a monstrous 6,25% gain, while Fincantieri is up 4,5%.
Leonardo rises on the Milan Stock Exchange, while banks are also doing well.
Since we have moved to Piazza Affari: the Milan Stock Exchange starts the week well with the Ftse Mib index which advances by a good 1%, approaching 46.000 basis points, supported by the aforementioned stocks but also by Tenaris's +4,6%, Lottomatica's +4%, and the banks, with Bper leading the way with its 3,7%. Intesa +1,4%, Unicredit +0,5%, bucked the trend with Banco Bpm -1,6%. Defense and chips are also boosting other European stock markets, although – aside from Frankfurt, which rose 1,3% – less vigorously than Piazza Affari: Paris +0,2%, London +0,5%, Madrid +0,7%. Wall Street is obviously also rising, with the Nasdaq gaining almost 1% just before the European close and the Dow Jones doing even better with +1,4%. The Venezuelan effect is also noticeable on the dollar, which has weakened slightly: the exchange rate against the euro today remains around 1,17.
Gold, copper, and silver rally. The spread narrows further.
And then there are the other raw materials, especially safe havens like gold but also copper, which are also affected by the Caribbean turnaround: Spot gold appreciates by more than 2,5% to $4.445 an ounce, and copper, which is coming off a record 2025, is trading briskly near $13.000 a ton, an unprecedented value. Also keep an eye on silver, which is the star of the day in percentage terms: +6% to over $77.000 an ounce. Returning to more domestic matters, it is finally worth noting the Btp Bund spreadItaly has recently found a way to convince the markets, despite depressing growth and an almost total lack of reforms. However, the accounts appear to be in order, and the ChinesecThat's enough for investors: spreads fell below 70 points this Monday, with the yield on the 10-year BTP at 3,53%.
