In recent years the world has not known lasting peace: in addition to the persistent war in Ukraine, which broke out in 2022 and is still ongoing, there are numerous other active conflicts in different regions, from Gaza to the fronts in Africa, the Middle East and finally the latest Iran-Israel which together generate a climate of global geopolitical instability very intense and widespread. Although these conflicts have different causes, dynamics and intensity, they all significantly influence the global economy, investors' risk perceptions and, consequently, the international art market.
When a conflict erupts or intensifies, the first reaction of financial and non-financial markets is almost always the same: uncertainty and volatilityInvestors tend to review their portfolios, increasing liquidity and reducing exposure to assets perceived as risky. In the case of the art market, this often translates into a contraction in sales of expensive works in the first months following the escalation of war, especially at high-end auctions, where caution prevails over investment pressure. In the past, geopolitical events have shown how markets perceived as "safe" are preferred to illiquid assets or those difficult to resell quickly.
War generally creates a perception of prolonged risk among the international community. This is reflected in an environment where collectors and buyers are more inclined to maintain liquidity rather than invest large sums in high-end art in traditional markets like London, New York, or Hong Kong. Therefore, in the short term, transactions may decline, and auction turnover may fluctuate significantly from year to year.
The role of “safe havens” in the short and medium term
Despite the initial reaction of caution, some asset categories have historically managed to maintain or even increase their value in times of tension. We often talk about shelter goods: instruments that investors perceive as relatively safe during global crises and tensions. Gold and government bonds are classic examples. Over the long term, artworks with unique characteristics, especially those by historically established figures or easily transportable assets, may be viewed by some investors as attractive alternatives in a climate of uncertainty. In the context of current wars, art can play a dual role: on the one hand, works by great masters or historically stable pieces can be seen as safe-haven investments by those with a long-term vision; on the other, pieces connected to cultural and symbolic themes linked to conflicts, such as works by Ukrainian or Middle Eastern artists that narrate war, resistance, or collective memory, can attract the attention of collectors sensitive to these aspects.
The influence on the cultural and artistic context
Contemporary conflicts affect not only the economy, but also the cultural and social context in which art is produced and consumed. The war in Ukraine has led to the destruction or damage of cultural institutions, museums, and public collections, as the case of the Ivankiv Local History Museum demonstrates, where significant works of Ukrainian culture have been lost. This not only represents a loss in itself, but also creates a context in which surviving works or those created during the conflict take on a documentary and symbolic value that goes beyond mere economic value. Similarly, in other war-torn regions, such as Sudan, many artists have had to interrupt their activities or flee to other cities and countries to continue their work, causing a significant disruption in local cultural production and potential future impacts on the global art market.
This cultural dynamic can generate a double effect: on the one hand, a decrease in works from conflict regions On the international market, on the other, greater visibility for artists addressing themes related to war, collective memory, and resistance. In this sense, war not only impacts prices and transactions, but also the content and values that collectors seek and appreciate.
Logistical restrictions and additional costs impacting the art market
The safety of artworks during transport becomes a greater priority: more expensive insurance, increased customs controls, and difficult shipping routes. All of this translates into higher transaction costs and, in times of war, greater difficulty organizing international fairs, exhibitions, and auctions in the regions most affected by conflict. Furthermore, economic sanctions on countries involved in major conflicts, such as Russia, can reduce the participation of collectors from those areas in traditional markets, pushing some operators to seek alternative markets or neutral jurisdictions in which to operate. This creates a redefinition of artistic capital flows globally, with possible lasting effects on the geography of the market.
Digitalization to address the problem
One of the most evident responses of the artistic ecosystem to global crises, including wars, has been the acceleration of digitization of cultural transactions and events. Building on the experience imposed by the COVID-19 pandemic, many auction houses and galleries have strengthened online platforms for virtual sales and auctions. This ability to function even in the absence of physical mobility is a factor mitigating the negative impact of wars on international sales. Works can be offered, viewed, and purchased globally without physical travel, at least partially reducing dependence on fairs and major international events.
Cultural storytelling
Beyond the material and logistical aspect, current conflicts have a profound impact on cultural narrative around art. Works that incorporate themes such as memory, resilience, human rights, or experiences of war acquire a dimension that can transcend mere aesthetics or financial investment. Contemporary artists who directly address these themes tend to achieve greater international visibility, in part because their work serves as a historical document and emotional testimony of the lived experiences of their community. This phenomenon is not new in the history of art, but today, on a global scale and with the ability to disseminate digitally, conflict-related works are not just local testimonies, but become part of an international cultural dialogue that can influence the interest of collectors and museums in the long term.
The international art market reacts to current armed conflicts in complex and multi-layered ways.
In the short term, war and global tensions generate uncertainty, volatility, and a potential decline in high-value transactions. In the medium term, however, adaptive dynamics emerge: some segments may act as safe havens, while digitalization and innovation in sales platforms alleviate logistical challenges. At the same time, conflicts profoundly influence the cultural and symbolic content of art, creating new narratives that attract international interest. More than just a financial market, the art system is increasingly becoming a space for cultural and symbolic reflection, where war and global tensions are not isolated factors, but elements that continually redefine the value, demand and very function of art in the contemporary world.
