In the dead of night, after a day of feverish waiting, the American President Donald Trumpp celebrated its eightieth birthday in extremis with a historic announcement: “The agreement with theIran It's now over. Congratulations to everyone: ships of the world, start your engines. Let the oil flow. I authorize full opening to the transit of Hormuz and the removal of the US naval blockade." It is the end of a nightmare that since the end of February has unleashed the war between Usa and Iran with thousands of deaths and injuries and serious damage to populations and the economy around the world.
The signing of the agreement will take place on Friday in GenevaVice President Vance and perhaps Trump himself will be there for the United States. Then the US and Iran will negotiate Tehran's nuclear program. Naturally, each side will interpret the agreement in its own way: for Trump, it's a great victory for America and for him personally; for Iran, on the other hand, the agreement marks the humiliation of the United States. The one person who doesn't like the peace agreement is the Israeli Prime Minister. Netanyahu which still yesterday continued to bomb Lebanon, jeopardizing the US-Iran agreement to the last minute. It may be a fragile peace, but it is peace nonetheless.
Hormuz reopens, oil breathes again
The turning point comes from Strait of Hormuz, the energy bottleneck that has been pressuring markets, governments and shipping companies for weeks. Trump confirmed that the reopening is scheduled for Friday, along with the signing of the agreement and the start of mine clearance operations. From then on, he promised, oil will flow freely again, "to the benefit of both the region and the rest of the world." The American president is claiming a personal success: defusing the naval blockade, bringing Tehran back to the table, and reopening the crucial passageway for global energy flows. "This great agreement will bring peace and security to the entire region," he wrote in Truth.
I markets have reacted immediately. WTI lost 4,8% to $80,80 a barrel, while Brent fell 3,9% to $83,89.
Trump told the New York Times: "Without a nuclear deal, the war will resume."
The peace announced by Trump is a conditional truce. In a 28-minute phone call with the New York Times, the American president has Tehran warnedWithout a final nuclear deal, the United States will be able to resume military strikes against Iran.
Il negotiation It is expected to begin on Friday in Switzerland, after the signing of the Hormuz memorandum and the lifting of the American naval blockade. But Trump has already set the parameters for the new phase: the ceasefire will only hold if Iran accepts constraints deemed sufficient by Washington. The crux of the matter remains:uranium enrichmentTrump has spoken of a possible 20-year suspension, suggesting he might accept a 15-year one, with permanent limits set at low levels that would prevent any military use. He also claimed that Iran would guarantee a "permanently toll-free" Strait of Hormuz, although the memorandum currently provides for a 60-day suspension and subsequent regional dialogue.
In the same interview, Trump attacked Netanyahu again, accusing him of having risked undermining the agreement with the strikes in Lebanon. The Israeli prime minister, he said, is "a very difficult guy" and should be grateful to the United States, because Israel "would not have survived even two hours" in the face of a nuclear-armed Iran.
Netanyahu isolated, Trump furious
The great political loser of the day seems Benjamin NetanyahuThe Israeli prime minister made no secret of his opposition to the agreement, which he deemed dangerous to Israel's interests. But the most significant factor was the attack in Lebanon, which came as the signing was imminent.
Trump reacted harshly. Speaking with Axios, accused Netanyahu of having risked blowing everything up"Why did he have to carry out a fucking attack? I was so furious. I let him know. He has no fucking judgment." The attack on Beirut, justified by Israel as a response to Hezbollah's actions, left at least three dead and fifteen wounded, according to Lebanese media.
Tehran had threatened "imminent" retaliation, while Israel had banned gatherings and raised its alert for a possible Iranian missile attack. Diplomacy held, but the incident showed how fragile the agreement remains.
Tehran claims victory: "The US and Israel have been humiliated."
And so, if Washington celebrates the agreement as an American triumph, Tehran He portrays it as a surrender of the adversaries. The Iranian armed forces declared that they had humiliated the United States and Israel, stating that Iran “has imposed its divine and iron will on its humiliated American and Zionist enemies” and that “the enemy has no choice but to accept defeat and surrender.”
The Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi He clarified that Tehran's commitments will take effect on Friday, but that negotiations for the final agreement will last 60 days and will focus primarily on the lifting of sanctions. Iran will move to the next phase only after the unfreezing of assets, the lifting of the US blockade, and the formal conclusion of the war.
The turning point was anticipated by the Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, which announced the agreement between the United States and Iran, signed on June 19 in Switzerland. According to Sharif, both sides declared an immediate and permanent cessation of military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon. The diplomatic framework also bears the name of Islamabad, where the memorandum was prepared before the formal signing. Trump also cited the contribution from Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, thanking them for their role in the path towards the agreement.
A fragile peace, but the markets believe in it
The Europe timidly enters the gameThe United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Italy have said they are ready to lift some sanctions against Iran, provided Tehran takes "concrete and verifiable steps" on its nuclear program. The four countries reiterated that Iran must never acquire nuclear weapons and called for the urgent reopening of the Hormuz Canal, emphasizing the need for unrestricted freedom of navigation.
The reopening of Hormuz doesn't erase the uncertainties. It's an incomplete peace, suspended between propaganda and diplomacy. But after months of war, naval blockades, missile threats, and energy tensions, even a fragile peace can be enough to change the climate of the markets and the Middle East.
Last update 8,05am
