It resumes today Saipem after yesterday's cold shower, Thursday 26 October, with the roller coaster title: after touching the minimum from last June at 1,275, today it saw a maximum of 1,41 euros also marking an increase of over 5%. The thrill reached us yesterday fears of a capital increase, which was followed by reassurances from management of Saipem according to which not only is there no capital increase in the short term, but the group's problematic order book now represents less than 10% of the total. In the late morning the stock increased by 4,83% to 1,40 euros.
In the third quarter, revenues grew by 9% quarter-on-quarter, above expectations
I third quarter accounts of 2023 were positive results for Saipem: revenues of 3,016 billion euros, +6% year on year, +9% quarter on a quarterly basis, higher than the 3,038 billion expected by consensus. The EBITDA adjusted is at 230 million, +26% year on year, +5% quarter on quarter, just below the expected 236, ladjusted net profit to 44 million, over the 36 million consensus estimate. Furthermore the company has 2023 guidance confirmed, with revenues over 11 billion, ebitda of 850 million, capex of 450 million and a net financial position of -0,5 billion.
Puliti: “This was one of the best quarters ever”
“The results are very positive” said the CEO Alessandro Clean, "This quarter It was one of the best ever of Saipem". It was also the second positive quarter in a row at the profit level and Saipem's CFO, Paolo Calcagnini, during the presentation of the accounts to the analysts, he wanted to underline "that we had not previously recorded a profitable quarter since 2019 and that we had not recorded a nine-month net profit above 79 million since 2014".
The market's misunderstanding of the capital increase
But what worried the market yesterday and changed its mind today was the announcement of the convening of ashareholders' meeting in December for the delegation to the board of directors increase capital based on the convertible bond issued this summer: “It's a technical fact which was already expected, the statement seemed clear to me but perhaps someone read it too quickly" the CFO hastened to say, assuring that "there is no capital increase tomorrow morning" and that the new shares will eventually be issued if the bond loan is converted into shares in six years. The CEO echoed this: "We are not doing anything extraordinary, nothing comparable to a dilutive capital increase like the one in 2022."
The problematic order backlog is now less than 10%
The good news for Saipem also concerns the problematic order backlog which time it represents “less than 10%” of the total, but in recent quarters the group has also done progress in the execution of inherited projects which initially represented 5 billion euros of the backlog (27,572 billion as of 30 September). “Over time we have reduced them by almost 60% to around 2,2 billion euros and they currently represent less than 10% of our backlog,” Puliti said, believing that the Mozambique Lng project for TotalEnergies will restart in 2024 and that the timing will be clarified in the coming months. “I think a decision will be made within a couple of months,” the top manager then said in reference to the client's choices.
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It's not time to decide on the dividend yet
As for the dividend, for Saipem it is not yet time to make predictions. Clean referred to what had already been stated during the half-yearly report. “It was too early then, now it's a little less early but the time hasn't even come” to say something, he specified without going into too much detail on the possibility of a coupon to be distributed to shareholders. The analysts of Equita and Banca Akros do not expect a dividend to be applied to the 2023 budget or even to the 2024 budget.
