The last Export report di Sace emphasizes the need to make informed decisions even in conditions of uncertainty and to transform complexity into a competitive lever. The international landscape continues to be characterized by high erraticity: geopolitical tensions, new trade barriers, increasing competition for global leadership, greater attention to the defense of National security and increasing vulnerability of supply chains, despite some preliminary agreements between United States and Iran have opened glimpses of normalization of the situation in the Gulf.
Sace: Italian exports are growing. They will exceed €690 billion in 2028.
In light of these considerations, Sace forecasts for Italian exports of goods in value a 2% increase this year, to then accelerate to 2,5% in 2027, reaching 675 billion euros and to 2,8% in 2028, when will exceed 690 billion. It also strengthens, the role of foreign sales of services, By virtue of their ever-increasing integration with manufacturing and therefore able to contribute significantly to the international projection of the Italian production system: already exceeding 150 billion last year, services are expected to grow by 3,5% in 2026 and by 4,2% on average over the next two years, thanks in particular to the liveliness of tourism, the main sector.
The geography of Italian exports
The Asia it emerges as the area with the greatest dynamism for exports, driven by investments in infrastructure, energy transition and industrial transformation; the return of the Gulf will drive growth over the next two years thanks to the expected normalization of the situation in the main markets of the area. Demand from the ALatin America will be fueled by energy projects and the reorganisation of value chains, while Africa (thanks in particular to Mattei plan), albeit in a more heterogeneous context, will show room for growth for machinery, technologies and intermediate goods.
Geographic diversification remains a strategic lever only partially utilized. Indeed, the global competitive landscape is structurally more complex than in the past. The growing weight of non-tariff barriers and the increasingly widespread use of regulatory and industrial policy tools require businesses to be more adaptable to complex and constantly evolving regulatory and customs environments. For 88% of countries, in fact, the costs generated by these measures exceed the costs of tariffs.
A further element of discontinuity in the competitive scenario is represented by the growing weight of critical raw materials (CRM), whose essential role in the digital and energy transitions, combined with the strong geographical concentration of supply, increases the risk of disruptions and restrictions (approximately 16% of their global trade is subject to them) and price volatility.
Italian businesses: three levers to strengthen exports
Thus the international fragmentation of production has made competitiveness increasingly dependent on the ability of companies to fit into complex production networks, allowing access to technologies, skills and markets and promoting production updating and specialization processes in the phases with the highest added value. The supply chains therefore become the point of synthesis between sales and imports,
It's no coincidence that approximately 41% of Italian manufacturing output is directly or indirectly driven by international production processes. Italian strategic supply chains account for over half of national turnover and exhibit a significantly higher propensity for exports than the Italian economy average (about 32% versus about 15%).
Looking ahead, the ability of Italian companies to strengthen their international presence will depend on preventive action on three key leversGeographic diversification of outlet markets, hedging risks and opportunities, and expanding sources of production inputs are key to triggering a virtuous cycle of access to credit, through a greater propensity to use insurance and financial instruments and the facilitation of private capital.
