In the second quarter of 2025 the Italian companies they start to show a cautious optimism, even within a still uncertain economic context. This is highlighted by theSurvey of inflation and growth expectations, published today by the Bank of Italy and conducted between May 19 and June 12 on a sample of companies belonging to the industrial and service sectors with at least 50 employees.
The opinions on the sgeneral economic situation of the country remain overall negative, but the balance between assessments of improvement and deterioration rose from -30 to -20 percentage points, marking the strongest recovery since mid-2022. improvement is widespread across the entire national territory and affects sectors and size classes across the board.
Domestic demand recovers, exports still weak
La current question has registered a decisive rebound, returning to positive territory (+8 percentage points), after three consecutive quarters of negative balance. The recovery was driven above all by the internal market, as confirmed by the data on service companies (+11) and those mainly active in the domestic sector (+10). Weaker, but still improving, is thetrend in foreign demand, which benefited mainly smaller industrial firms. On the contrary, the balance deteriorated among large exporters, affected by the turbulence in international markets.
The conductor itself can take various shapes, in bare or tinned copper, with or without insulation. In some cases, a preferential bend can also be applied to the joint so that it operates exactly as designed. expectations for the current quarter remain marked by confidence. The balance between companies that expect an increase in turnover and those that fear a contraction stands at +25 percentage points. However, among companies most exposed to foreign markets, a reduction in expectations is noted, in particular among those that generate more than two-thirds of their turnover outside Italy.
US tariffs: a brake that persists
One element that continues to negatively impact business prospects is theuncertainty related to global trade policies, in particular i tariffs imposed by the United States. The 32% of companies manufacturing and the 12% of those of services has reported negative effects attributable to duties, manifested mainly through the drop in orders from the US in the case of industry, and with indirect impacts on demand for service companies. Added to this are concerns for a possible intensification of Chinese competition: 34% of manufacturing and 24% of service companies fear an increase in the supply of Chinese products in their reference markets, with consequent downward pressure on prices.
Investment climate recovering, employment growing
Le conditions for investing are perceived as improving, although remaining at negative levels. The balance between favorable and unfavorable opinions rose to -12 percentage points, from -17 in the previous quarter. Companies show more confidence also with respect to capital expenditure: the balance between those who expect an increase in investments and those who anticipate a reduction has risen to +17 percentage points, four more than in March.expected expansion is more marked in the construction sector, also thanks to the prospect of benefiting from the interventions envisaged by the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (PNRR), which approximately 60% of companies in the sector are optimistic about.
Sul employment front, expectations remain solid. The balance between companies that expect an increase in the workforce and those that estimate a contraction is stable at +15 percentage points. Here too, the most significant contribution comes from construction (+25), while industry in the strict sense records an unchanged balance (+10) and services show a slight slowdown (+17, from 20). This confirms a trend of expansion in employment, which has now been ongoing for several quarters.
Stable prices and inflation expected at 2%
La sales price dynamics remain contained. The annual variations in selling prices stand at 1,6% for industry and 1,9% in services. The Forecasts for the next 12 months do not signal any acceleration. The expected growth remains at 1,6% in industry, 1,8% in services and 3,4% in construction. The main pressures on the price lists still derive from the costs of labor and raw materials, but both appear to be weakening compared to the recent past. At the same time, there are signs of a increased price competition, also fueled by expectations of increased Chinese supply.
Business expectations on theconsumer price inflation shows slight increase, stabilizing at 2% over all time horizons – 6, 12 and 24 months – and at 2,1% over four years. A level consistent with the European Central Bank’s target, which suggests a firmer anchoring of expectations after the volatility recorded in the two-year period 2022-2023.
Improve access to credit
Le credit access conditions are showing signs of easing. 8% of companies reported an improvement, compared to 6% that indicated a deterioration. This is the best positive balance since 2021. The data is driven by companies active in non-residential construction, which report more favorable assessments compared to the previous quarter. Expectations for the next three months remain oriented towards stability.
Risk Central: savings of one billion per year
On the sidelines of the quarterly report, Bankitalia also updated the estimates on the economic benefits deriving from the Central Risk Office. Inclusion in the database allows deserving companies, over 95% of the total, a savings in terms of credit costs estimated at around one billion euros per year. The analysis highlights an average reduction in rates of between 21 and 40 basis points, to the benefit of the transparency and efficiency of the financial system.
